MANILA, Philippines – In their best-of-seven PBA Philippine Cup semifinal series against the Rain or Shine Elasto Painters, the TNT Tropang Giga are hoping to take a commanding 2-0 lead, riding a wave of momentum. With a 98-91 lead after the first quarter, TNT is ready to take Game 2 on with a more certain performance, better strategy, and a better grasp of how to take advantage of the matchup.

RR Pogoy was the driving force behind TNT’s first victory, scoring 28 points. He was especially impressive in the fourth quarter, when he led his team to victory. Without full-strength backup in the backcourt, he solidified his position as the team’s principal offensive weapon by finding holes in Rain or Shine’s defense and converting tough shots under pressure. As Jordan Heading, Brian Heruela, and Jayson Castro continue to deal with injury, the leadership and scoring punch of Pogoy are more important than ever.

The supporting cast of TNT was also significant. Poy Erram, who entered the game as a substitute, contributed 16 points, 7 boards, and 2 blocks. He was a tenacious defender in the paint and scored crucial points in the second half. Along with anchoring the wing and contributing 18 points, defensive versatility and spacing were provided by Calvin Oftana. Defensively, Rain or Shine was out-rebounded, but Brandon Ganuelas-Rosser and Kelly Williams helped keep the scoring chances inside.

Despite being downhearted by Game 1’s result, Rain or Shine had a number of promising traits. Jhonard Clarito had 14 points and 7 boards, and Andrei Caracut had 16 points off the bench thanks to his shooting efficiency. Both the exterior presence and the materiality of the boards were contributed by Leonard Santillan. The hustle game was a strength for the Elasto Painters, as they pulled down 52 rebounds overall, while TNT only managed 41.

It was especially difficult for the Elasto Painters to maintain their defensive ferocity in the fourth quarter. Rain or Shine tied the game at 67-all at the end of the third quarter, but they were outscored 31-24 in the fourth quarter because they couldn’t stop TNT from using their perimeter weapons and maintaining discipline in the late game. They lost a lot of ground because they couldn’t score off offensive rebounds or stop Erram from cutting to the basket.

Both teams will need to make strategic changes before Game 2. TNT will most likely keep putting Rain or Shine’s perimeter defense through its paces with off-ball screens for Pogoy and Oftana and pick-and-rolls with Erram and Rosser. Their assault arsenal may be augmented even further if TNT were to re-engage Heading or Castro.

When playing defense, TNT will try to contain Clarito and Santillan on the offensive end. Despite having a significant rebounding edge, Rain or Shine were unable to parlay their 13 mistakes into effective scoring, which hampered their hopes of a comeback. When it comes to transition defense, TNT will likely tighten their rotations.

The number one objective for Rain or Shine is to contain Pogoy. Their perimeter defense frequently overaided on drives, which gave TNT’s shooters too many open looks. When defending off screens and dribble handoffs, Guiao’s squad has to be more precise and rely on their rotations. Their offensive performance in Game 1 was severely lacking due to the inconsistency of their guards, Rey Nambatac and Shaun Ildefonso, who scored a combined nine points.

When it comes to offensive efficiency, TNT is still statistically superior. Compared to Rain or Shine’s 41.3% field goal percentage in Game 1, theirs was 45.8% (including 36%). Their smooth offensive rhythm was on display as the Tropang Giga recorded more assists (20) and fewer turnovers (11 vs. 13 for Rain or Shine).

Despite playing in different leagues, TNT has a history of dominating quarterfinal matches against Rain or Shine. This season, TNT swept Rain or Shine 4-0 in their two playoff matchups. They have a solid foundation to work upon thanks to their psychological advantage and background in high-stakes situations.

The odds are favoring TNT as we enter Game 2. The analysts have given TNT a 70% chance of winning Game 2 due to their larger bench, better shooting from beyond the arc, and capacity to seal the deal. But there is still a window of opportunity, rain or shine. They have a good chance of tying the series if the Elasto Painters can continue to dominate the boards, cut down on mistakes, and make baskets from within the paint.

Game 2 is crucial in the end. With a TNT win, Chot Reyes’s Rain or Shine squad would be one win away from another trip to the finals. The series’ momentum would be reset and TNT’s depth would be tested if Rain or Shine won. Game 2 of this semifinal series is sure to be just as exciting as the first, with both teams coming into it eager and fatigued.