The PBA Philippine Cup semifinals promise another thrilling chapter as the TNT Tropang Giga face off against the Rain or Shine Elasto Painters in a best-of-seven showdown beginning at the SM Mall of Asia Arena. Both teams enter the series with compelling narratives and contrasting styles, setting the stage for what is expected to be a tightly contested semifinal.

TNT arrives as the statistical favorite and the more experienced playoff team. The Tropang Giga earned their semifinal slot after a grueling quarterfinal series against the Magnolia Hotshots, which went the distance. TNT won the deciding game 95–92, thanks to clutch performances from veterans like Calvin Oftana and Roger Pogoy. The team is eyeing a rare Grand Slam, having already performed strongly in previous conferences, and now turns its focus to the most prestigious all-Filipino crown.

Despite being hampered by injuries to key guards such as Jayson Castro, Jordan Heading, and Brian Heruela, the Tropang Giga have found a way to compete effectively. TNT head coach Chot Reyes has leaned on his bench depth and adjusted rotations to keep the team balanced. Players like Kelly Williams and Brandon Ganuelas-Rosser have stepped up on both ends of the court, providing rebounding, rim protection, and timely scoring.

Calvin Oftana has been a stabilizing force for TNT throughout the conference. Averaging 17.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.1 assists, Oftana brings versatility and composure. Roger Pogoy, another offensive catalyst, has contributed 15.3 points per game with efficient shooting from long range. The team’s offensive approach emphasizes spacing and ball movement, evidenced by their average of 24.6 assists per game in the eliminations.

On the opposite side, Rain or Shine enters the semifinals as the underdog, but with growing momentum and renewed confidence. The Elasto Painters secured their spot by stunning second-seeded NLEX Road Warriors in the quarterfinals, overcoming the twice-to-beat disadvantage with two impressive wins. Their 103–92 clincher was highlighted by strong performances from Leonard Santillan, Andrei Caracut, and Jhonard Clarito, all of whom played with intensity and purpose.

Santillan has emerged as Rain or Shine’s most consistent inside presence, averaging 14.2 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. His ability to dominate the glass and finish around the rim has made him a focal point in Coach Yeng Guiao’s system. Clarito, meanwhile, has brought energy and hustle, contributing key rebounds and defensive stops, while Caracut’s playmaking and shooting have kept opposing defenses honest.

Rain or Shine has been one of the best rebounding teams in the playoffs, averaging 53.1 boards per game, including 16 offensive rebounds. Their aggressive style on the glass and second-chance points have proven effective against physically stronger teams. The Elasto Painters have also developed into a dangerous perimeter shooting team, hitting nearly 37% of their three-point attempts in the postseason.

Tactically, the semifinal clash will hinge on TNT’s ability to contain Rain or Shine’s hustle game and interior dominance. In contrast, the Elasto Painters will need to keep up with TNT’s perimeter firepower and veteran composure in close-game scenarios. TNT’s ability to switch defensively and cover ground could pose problems for Rain or Shine’s ball movement, but Guiao’s squad has repeatedly shown it can adapt under pressure.

In their most recent playoff series, TNT showed vulnerability in defending athletic forwards, a weakness Rain or Shine may look to exploit through Santillan and Clarito’s physical drives and offensive rebounding. Meanwhile, TNT’s outside shooting, led by Pogoy and Oftana, remains a primary weapon. The battle on the boards and execution in transition will likely decide several close quarters.

Statistically, TNT enters the series with an edge in experience and scoring efficiency, leading in field goal percentage at 45.8% compared to Rain or Shine’s 42.9%. However, Rain or Shine holds a narrow lead in rebounding and has averaged fewer turnovers per game (11.4 vs. TNT’s 13.2), which could become a factor in long possessions and end-game scenarios.

Analysts predict a tightly contested series that could go the full seven games. TNT is favored slightly with a 65–35 edge in most projections due to its playoff-tested roster and consistent offensive output. Still, Rain or Shine’s recent form and defensive grit give them a real chance at pulling off an upset. If the Elasto Painters continue to dominate the rebounding battle and limit TNT’s perimeter shooting, they can flip the script.