MONDAY, Butler received an indefinite suspension. The Miami Heat’s decision to suspend Jimmy Butler indefinitely is the most recent development in one of the most dramatic player-team public feuds in modern NBA history. The controversy started at the end of the previous season when Pat Riley, the team president, said that he was reluctant to offer Butler a contract extension because of his injury problems. As the season progressed, it led to a number of trade requests, three suspensions, and a now-laughable press release from Riley stating that the Heat would not be dealing Butler.

We arrived here in this manner. With ten days till the trade deadline and no resolution in sight, the real question is where we are headed. We’re not going to make a forecast here because, based on how things has gone thus far, it seems silly. Rather, we will examine all potential outcomes and the necessary steps to bring them to fruition. 

This is how things will turn out if Butler gets his way. The team that has pursued Butler the most aggressively on the trade market is Phoenix. In the past, he and Kevin Durant have expressed interest in a combination because Durant’s favorite destination when looking for a move away from the Brooklyn Nets was the Heat. The Suns are in a position to provide Butler the contract extension he desires, above everything else. The second apron has already been completely disregarded by Phoenix. If they must pay Butler for an additional year, what difference does it make to them?

A trade is not guaranteed, even with him. Even though the Suns now have three first-round picks that can be traded, none of them are particularly sought-after. The Cleveland Cavaliers will most likely select the 2025 pick, which will end up in one of the round’s final two spots. The other two convey as the worst picks available throughout those seasons and are tied to three teams. In addition to convincing the Heat to send them to Beal, the Suns will probably have to pay off other clubs to cover salaries (including Beal’s) with those three selections and perhaps rookie Ryan Dunn. The odds are stacked against the Suns, but perhaps they can come up with a workable answer in the next ten days.

Reports about Butler’s interest in teams other than the Suns have been a little erratic. We once heard that he was instructing specific teams outright not to trade for him. An alternative phrase was “anybody but the Heat.” Another said, “anybody but the Heat or the Grizzlies.” Butler has the power to be selective. He could hypothetically depart any team that trades for him at the end of the season if he has a player option. The world has witnessed what happens when Butler plays for a team he doesn’t want to be on, even if he doesn’t. No one is entering that door voluntarily.

Leverage, of course, can be transient. That would help to explain why Butler has been suspended by the Heat so quickly this season. Assume that a deal involving the Suns is either impractical or would not be desired because it would not provide much value to the Heat. How can one best get Butler to warm up to a different location? by making his life in Miami so unpleasant that he will stop at nothing to leave.

Let’s say February 6th arrives and passes without a trade. Is it feasible to reconcile? Well, at least some precedent exists. In the past, retracted trade requests were somewhat more frequent. Notable players who have attempted to force trades, failed, and eventually returned to their teams are Kobe Bryant, Scottie Pippen, and Hakeem Olajuwon. After the fact, all three went on to win titles. Since then, however, the league has seen significant upheaval. The most recent instance of a withdrawn trade request was LaMarcus Aldridge, who ultimately stayed in San Antonio until 2021 despite wanting to leave in 2017.

Butler wants to continue receiving compensation. His best option, in the absence of a trade and an extension, is an opt-in. That might very well mean sticking with the Heat during the upcoming campaign. What then occurs?